Part 1:
During the course of this project we were expected to learn all about probability, how to solve certain types of probability focused problems and the following definitions
Probability- Probability is the chance that something can occur, 100% probability means that something will for sure happen, there is no way for a percentage to extend over 100. This can also be represented in fraction form
Observed probability- Observed probability is the probability of the experiment that was completed and observed
Theoretical probability- Theoretical probability is the probability before the experiment, what math tells you could be
Conditional probability- Conditional probability is the probability that that something will affect object A, given that object B’s occurence will happen
Probability of Multiple Events- This is the probability of 2 or more events taking place
Expected values- Expected values is basically a predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all the possible values each multiplied by of its occurrence
Two-Way Tables- Two-Way Tables show joint and marginal probabilities along with totals
Tree Diagram- A Tree Diagram is one way of looking at all the possible probabilities and outcomes in an equation, a Tree diagram shows both joint and conditional probabilities
Joint probability- Joint Probability is a statistical measure where the likelihood of two events happening together, and the same point in time are calculated. It’s the probability of event A happening at the same time as event X
Marginal probability- Marginal probability is the probability of a specific event happening in part of a probability equation.
Part 2:
Background: There isn’t much history about this game other than it has different names in different states and countries.
Who, where: Because thirty one is a gambling game, typically played in casino type environments, I assume that this game was mainly played by townspeople and others of lower class in hopes to obtain more money. Because this game was more for the lower class it was played in bars, and homes.
Modern game: Nowadays thirty one is played in casinos, just like it was in the past. Because thirty one is a card game it can also be played at home, or anywhere players wish.
Why I chose this game: I chose this game because honestly it was a lot simpler than the other game that I had previously chosen and I thought that thirty one was really interesting and sounded fun to play.
How is it played: The objective of the game is to secure a hand with a value total to the number 31. You play the game with a deck of 52 playing cards with aces high, counting 11 and face cards count 10 with all other cards count face value. Each of the players receive a hand of three cards and the rest of the deck sits in the middle of the table, like a stock for the game. The top card of the stock is turned over, that allows for the discard to begin. The players keep track of how many games they have lost by folding corners of a 5 dollar note, which is also a players stake in the game. It doesn’t have to be a 5 dollar note though, it can really anything that the players decide. After the hands in the first round of the game are dealt, the play proceeds with each player, starting with the player to the left of the dealer and then going clockwise around the table, taking the top card of either the stock or the discard and subsequently discarding card. All of the participants are attempting to collect a hand value of 31. Because I was not able to play the game during exhibition I didn’t have to adapt it in any way.
Chance/Probability: This game has elements of probability because of it’s gambling nature and randomness in receiving the cards.
Part 3:
For the probability analysis the question that I am answering here is " What is the Probability of getting 3 10's and 1 ace". Below you can that there is a probability tree that helps to answer this question. The calculations in are the corner of the board where it is multiplied together to get a percentage.
For the probability analysis the question that I am answering here is " What is the Probability of getting 3 10's and 1 ace". Below you can that there is a probability tree that helps to answer this question. The calculations in are the corner of the board where it is multiplied together to get a percentage.
Part 4:
For the renaissance game grade I believe that I deserve a B+. I think that I deserve this grade because I put a lot of effort into the research of this game and learning how to better understand it. Because original game that I did didn’t have the elements it needed, I started a whole new game with new research and data. I put in a lot of work into both of my games so that the final product would be understandable and praise worthy.
I think that the best part of my renaissance game to me is the calculations and the math that went into it. This is because I put a lot of work into trying to understand how to properly do the problem learn about the math.
Because it was just me working on my game I think that one thing I could have worked on more is the math part so I could understand how the probability works in this card game.
Next year I would definitely choose a simpler game to do so that I could actually create the game and be able to take more time to better understand it. My problem this year was that my end game, 31, was chosen too late so it was harder for me to complete all that was needed to be done for this project. But I still did it, and that is why I deserve a B+.
For the renaissance game grade I believe that I deserve a B+. I think that I deserve this grade because I put a lot of effort into the research of this game and learning how to better understand it. Because original game that I did didn’t have the elements it needed, I started a whole new game with new research and data. I put in a lot of work into both of my games so that the final product would be understandable and praise worthy.
I think that the best part of my renaissance game to me is the calculations and the math that went into it. This is because I put a lot of work into trying to understand how to properly do the problem learn about the math.
Because it was just me working on my game I think that one thing I could have worked on more is the math part so I could understand how the probability works in this card game.
Next year I would definitely choose a simpler game to do so that I could actually create the game and be able to take more time to better understand it. My problem this year was that my end game, 31, was chosen too late so it was harder for me to complete all that was needed to be done for this project. But I still did it, and that is why I deserve a B+.